Changes Based upon the Bracket Breakdown from February 26th, 2013
1 Seeds:
1. Indiana- The Hoosiers stay on the 1-line even with the loss to Minnesota. Indiana had some room to give even on the 1-line because its resume and body of work was superior enough to Gonzaga, Michigan, etc. that this loss doesn’t hurt them. Another loss, however, and we could see the Hoosiers drop down to a 2-seed.
2. Gonzaga- No losses this week, no need to change the line for the Bulldogs. Another loss by Indiana as well as a loss in the ACC Tournament by Miami and the Bulldogs could find themselves as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament.
3. Miami- The Hurricanes move up to the 1-line with the losses by Florida and Michigan this week. Michigan especially has its work cut out for it with a loss to Penn State last night. It would need the winner of Miami vs. Duke this Saturday to be bounced early in the ACC Tournament to move back on to the 1-line.
4. Duke- Think this Saturday’s Miami vs. Duke tilt at Cameron Indoor didn’t mean enough already? Bragging rights, an ACC regular season championship (Miami needs to lose twice), revenge from the first meeting? Now likely a spot as a projected 1-seed entering Championship Week is on the line for Miami and Duke. Only thing that would make this better is a rematch in the ACC Championship.
Last Four Byes:
61: La Salle- Moved up with the losses by Oklahoma and Villanova to teams outside the RPI Top 100 (Texas, Seton Hall)
62: California- Same deal as La Salle, has not played in the past three days
63: Saint Mary’s- If Saint Mary’s loses another game that’s not against Gonzaga in the WCC Championship, they likely drop out of the field entirely. But win the rest and they are in the tournament assuredly.
64: Kentucky- Kentucky is hanging in just enough without Nerlens Noel, but the Wildcats’ tournament stock will be weighted more heavily than most other teams’ stocks in the next two weeks given the short time frame of play in Noel’s absence.
Last Four In:
68. Alabama- A win last night combined with teams toppling around them sneaks Alabama in.
67. Oklahoma- A loss to Texas takes Oklahoma from solidly in the tournament (the first of the “Last 4 Byes”) to squarely on the bubble as one of the “Last Four In.”
66. Villanova- End of game situations cost Villanova against Seton Hall, and that loss drops them right to the brink of the bubble. Two losses against Pittsburgh and Georgetown in the next six days could force them to win multiple games, and one against a Top 50 opponent in Madison Square Garden two weeks from now to get them into the tournament.
65. Temple- The Owls have complete control of their own destiny. Three straight winnable games and then one against VCU, a 3-1 clip and one win in the A-10 Tournament should send the Owls dancing.
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First Four Out: Ole Miss, Baylor, Arizona State, Iowa
Next Four Out: Saint John’s, Tennessee, Southern Miss, Xavier