Tonight, the BCS National Championship Game will kick off in the SuperDome at 8:30PM. The #1 ranked, undefeated LSU Tigers look to cap off one of the most impressive seasons in history, and look to defeat the Alabama Crimson Tide for the second time this season. Alabama, on the other hand, is gunning to defeat LSU in a revenge effort. The Tide dropped a home game this season to LSU in a game where ‘Bama outgained LSU in yards 295-239, and would have won by 2 scores if Jeremy Shelley and Cade Foster had been able to make their field goals.
Many people see this game at LSU’s to lose. However, that is simply not the case. This game is Alabama’s to lose. Alabama has more talent on offense, has the better rated defense, and should be able to move the ball on offense much more easily than the LSU offense. Trent Richardson is by far the best offensive force in the game, with his running back counterpart Eddie Lacy right behind as the second best offensive player in the game. Alabama should be able to control the clock and the possession, much like the first game, but only turnovers from AJ McCarron at quarterback or from the Alabama special teams will cost the Tide this game. In addition, McCarron’s ability to find Marquis Maze on passing plays will dictate Richardson’s effectiveness, as it will force an extra LSU linebacker off the line of scrimmage to defend the passing game and will give Richardson and Lacy more holes through which to run.
Another key for tonight’s game will be the same as the first matchup. Can Alabama hit its field goals? More specifically, can Alabama hit field goals from 40+ yards? The Crimson Tide kickers have only made 2 of 11 attempts from beyond 40 yards, and primary kicker Jeremy Shelley has not made a field goal past 39 yards. Field goal kicking will be such a key in this game on both sides because LSU has the 2nd ranked defense in the country, and Alabama has the top defense. These two teams rarely give up touchdowns on defense, so field goals may be the way to score, much like the first game. LSU has an affinity for giving up yards, but is a bend-but-don’t-break defense, so expect Alabama to have 42-48 yard field goal attempts at multiple times during the game. Can Jeremy Shelley or Cade Foster hit these attempts inside the dome? If so, Alabama will have the upper-hand in this Championship Game.
Finally, the third key is the “Honey Badger” himself, Tyrann Mathieu. He is the prime example of why even though Alabama “should” win this game, the Tide might not. He is the most disruptive player in all of college football, and when the field is completely level between teams of this caliber, Mathieu is the player that tilts the advantage towards LSU. He is always ready to make a key strip of the football, intercept a deep ball, or return a punt for a touchdown. He is the most difficult player to quantify in terms of impact, because one can never predict exactly what he is going to do, but one play from him could completely change the game in LSU’s favor.
Given these keys, the game looks like a toss-up to me. It will be the most exciting Championship Game since, well, last year, when Auburn and Oregon provided a 22-19 thriller. However, don’t expect this game to disappoint relative to last year’s game. There is no question that the two best teams in college football were selected for this game, and the fans will see the most talented players in college football squaring off for the Crystal Ball.
My prediction: Alabama able to squeak past LSU 16-10, and LSU will be one big play from Tyrann Mathieu away from winning the National Championship.
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