Wisconsin wasn’t going to lose to Michigan State. It just wasn’t going to happen. And Penn State fans couldn’t even look forward to a match-up against Wisconsin in the season finale. It wouldn’t matter, the Badgers would run the Lions out of the stadium and walk into the Big Ten Championship Game. That was the general sentiment from every Penn State fan that I interacted with in the past two weeks. And then last night happened, and Penn State has as much of a chance as anyone in the Leaders Division of the Big Ten.
Penn State went on the road and put 34 points on the board in a victory against Northwestern. 34 points were the most points scored by Penn State against a team not named Indiana State or Eastern Michigan this season. It was by far the best offensive performance of the season for Penn State, and it was the first game all season that the coaches did not utilize two quarterbacks. Finally, mercifully, Penn State decided to play Matt McGloin for the entire game, a game in which he went 17-26 with 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. For the season, McGloin has thrown for over 1000 yards and has thrown just 2 interceptions, only one of which was his fault. McGloin looks like he will continue to start, although Joe Paterno will expound upon that during his Tuesday press conference (Follow @boblongsports for live tweets from Paterno’s press conferences).
Despite all the criticism of the program in recent weeks, Penn State is 7-1 and is alone at the top of the Leaders Division with a 4-0 conference record. The Nittany Lions host Illinois next week, have a bye the following week, then host Nebraska, travel to Ohio State, and travel to Wisconsin to end the regular season.
With the incredible last second loss by Wisconsin to Michigan State Saturday evening, Penn State is in the driver’s seat in the Leaders Division. Bob Long Sports (@boblongsports) tweeted this regarding Penn State last Friday prior to this weekend’s slate of football games:
“officially putting #pennstate on B10 alert..if wisco loses to MSU this weekend, Lions can lose 2 more and still play for Leaders Div Nov 26″
Next weekend, Wisconsin will play against Ohio State in a night game at the Horseshoe. If Ohio State can continue to play very well defensively, and can win that game at home, Penn State will be assured of a berth in the Big Ten Championship game if it wins the three games prior to the Wisconsin game on November 26th. The outcome would not matter in that game, because Wisconsin would have 2 losses in the Big Ten, and a loss to the Badgers would only put the Lions at 1 conference loss.
However, it is understandable that most fans would not expect the Nittany Lions to roll through each of the next three games with victories. Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State are three of the most difficult games of the season, and these teams are better than every team Penn State has played this season except for Alabama (a 16 point home loss). Therefore, another way to think about the Lions’ current situation is by discussing the possibility of losses by Penn State. Because Wisconsin has 1 loss in conference, and Penn State has none, the Nittany Lions can lose two of the next three games in Big Ten play (Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State) and still have the opportunity to clinch the Leaders Division Championship on November 26th. Even if the Lions have two conference losses entering the final game against Wisconsin (with 1 conference loss), a victory against the Badgers would give Wisconsin two losses in conference as well, and the head-to-head tiebreaker would reward Penn State.
One caveat: Ohio State also has only two losses in conference at this point, and it is possible that the Buckeyes win out as well, which could potentially force a tiebreaker. If we are assuming that Ohio State beats Penn State and Wisconsin, and Penn State beats Wisconsin, Ohio State would in fact win the Leaders Division, because the Buckeyes beat Penn State head-to-head, and Wisconsin would have three conference losses. Therefore, if Penn State truly wants to test its luck with losses in two of the next three games, the team would be well served to beat Ohio State in its one win.
If Penn State only loses 1 conference game entering the season finale against Wisconsin, the Lions would obviously face no tiebreaker issues with a win, and would qualify for the Big Ten Championship.
The situations are certainly confusing, but the most important point is that Wisconsin’s loss to Michigan State last Saturday opened up a lot of doors for Penn State. With another loss by Wisconsin, the Nittany Lions could assure themselves a Big Ten Championship berth by winning each of the three games before the Wisconsin game on November 26th. Also, Penn State can lose two of the next three games and assure themselves an opportunity to clinch the Big Ten Leaders Division on November 26th. For as poorly as this time has played the entire season, at 7-1 and 4-0 in Big Ten play, Penn State is in the driver’s seat.
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