Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
It has been an entertaining NBA Playoffs thus far, and I wouldn’t expect anything less from the NBA Finals. The Heat have proved all of the critics wrong in these playoffs. The critics said that the Heat “weren’t clutch enough” or “didn’t have enough bench play”. Miami has lost three games during these playoffs, and none of them have been on their home court. Like Miami, Dallas has only lost three games this postseason. The Mavericks have been the most impressive team of these playoffs. With the way Dirk is playing, it is difficult to imagine Dallas losing a seven game series.
Season Series: Mavericks won 2-0
Key Player in the Series: Dwyane Wade. Wade struggled in the series against the Bulls, and he will have to step it up in order for the Heat to win the series. Wade is the only starter on either team that has won a ring, and he will have to use that experience to his advantage. Wade won the Finals MVP award in 2006, The Heat lost the first two games of the series to the Mavericks in 2006, but then Wade took over. In the next four games, Wade scored 42, 36, 43, and 36 points. The Heat won all four of those games. In the series, Wade had a PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 33.8. The PER is set up so that the average of every player is 15, and scoring 35 over an entire season means that it is A Year for the Ages! Wade’s performance was ranked the greatest Finals performance since the ABA-NBA Merger in 1976 by ESPN’s John Hollinger. Wade performed that well on the biggest stage, and if performs like he did that year Miami should have no problem winning this series.
The Mavericks are an older team than the Heat, so they will have to play smart in order to win. Dallas will have to make sure that it takes good shots and gets back on defense quickly. They can not afford to let Wade or James get on fast breaks. Dirk will also have to continue the way he has been playing. If he can score 30 points, I believe that the Mavericks will win that game, but it will be harder than ever for Dirk to score. Miami will make it extremely difficult for Dallas to get the ball to Nowitzki anywhere on the court. The Heat are athletic enough to take some chances on defense too.
It will be interesting to see how Miami decides to play defense against the Mavericks. During their series against the Bulls, Miami allowed them to take shots from outside. The Bulls were not shooting well from outside the entire series, so the strategy paid off for the Heat. But Dallas is a great three point shooting team. Peja Stojakovic and Jason Terry have been lights out so far in these playoffs, and the Heat cannot leave them open. One still has to wonder how Miami’s starters are holding up. They have been playing a lot of minutes in these playoffs, and it should be interesting if this series goes long. On the other hand, Dallas plays its bench a lot, and gets a lot of production out of the bench players. Barea, Peja, and Terry are the main contributors from the bench, and they all score points. Dallas will need the same production out of them.
Prediction: Miami Heat. Miami is the home team in this series. Remember, in the NBA Finals the teams will play 2 games Miami, then 3 games in Dallas, and then will finish with 2 games in Miami. I have been picking against Dallas this entire playoffs, and they have proved me wrong every series. I don’t think that Dirk is enough to beat the Heat though. Only away two teams have won all three of their home games with this format (2004 Pistons, 2006 Heat), and I don’t expect the Mavs to win three in a row against the Heat. Heat win series 6 games.