Eastern Conference
3) Boston Bruins vs. 4) Tampa Bay Lightning
The biggest question for the Boston Bruins is, “Can the team score enough?” When the team is in its defensive scheme, the Bruins are the toughest team in hockey to beat. Scoring against the Bruins is very difficult due to the combination of strong defense, led by Zdeno Chara, and stellar goaltending, led by Tim Thomas, the best goaltender remaining in the playoffs. The Bruins have proved to be the most physical team in this year’s postseason, and have controlled two traditionally tough teams in the Montreal Canadiens and the Philadelphia Flyers. In this series, however, the Bruins face a different type of team. The Lightning is a team more focused on speed and quickness, “lightning quickness,” if you will. The Lightning score early and often, and the explosiveness of their offense is the biggest concern for the Bruins. As good as the Bruins are in the steady defensive set, the team is vulnerable when trailing. When the Bruins need to come back from a deficit, the team doesn’t have the pure offensive scorer to rely upon. The defense can begin to unravel and overcompensate in an attempt to score, and this can lead to more scoring opportunities for the Lightning. The first goal is always important in a hockey game and a playoff series, but in this series particularly, the first goal is essential. If the Bruins score first, the team can settle into its traditional scheme, and when it does, it is the toughest team in the NHL to beat. If the Lightning scores first, the Bruins will begin to reel on offense, which can unravel its defensive scheme and give the Lightning more frequent scoring opportunities.
For the Lightning, the biggest question is, “Is Dwayne Roloson really that good?” To this point in the playoffs, he has been “that good.” Roloson has allowed just 2.01 goals per game in the playoffs, best among goaltenders with 3 or more games played. He also leads in save percentage with .941. Roloson would challenge the above statement that Tim Thomas is the best goaltender remaining in the playoffs. If Roloson can be as good as he has been in the first 2 series, the Lightning will have a great opportunity to win the series. The offense is there, the goaltending was always the question. Teddy Purcell is tied for the playoff lead in assists with 11, and Martin St. Louis is right behind with 8. Most of these assists have been complemented by the goals of Sean Bergenheim, who has the playoff lead with 8 goals. Bergenheim had only 14 goals in the entire regular season, but has found his stride in the postseason. More prominent goal scorers Steven Stamkos and Vincent Lacavalier have combined for only 9 goals. When 2 of the best scorers in the league combine for only 9 goals through 11 games, and the team still leads the playoffs in goals scored per game (3.58), offense is not the problem. Therefore, if Dwayne Roloson can continue to stand on his head in net, there is little question of who will win the series.
My prediction: Boston gets a few too many pucks behind Roloson, and the physicality of the Bruins wears on the Lightning in later games of the series. The Bruins win in 7 games.
Western Conference
1) Vancouver Canucks vs. 2) San Jose Sharks
For Vancouver, the biggest question is, “Will the offensive weapons play to their potential?” Ryan Kesler has played tremendous hockey to this point, leading the playoffs in points (15), but the Sedin brothers have pulled a disappearing act at times this postseason. The Sedin brothers will need to lead their line offensively in order to give the Canucks an edge in the 1 vs. 2 matchup. Roberto Luongo has been very good in net, and will continue to be steady, but the talented offense for Vancouver simply needs to show up.
For San Jose, the biggest question is, “Can the goaltending be consistent throughout the series?” The question hasn’t been answered over the course of the postseason so far. Antti Niemi has been very average throughout the playoffs, and needed to be pulled multiple times in the marathon first round series against the Kings. Niemi has a Goals Against Average of 3.01, and a save percentage of .906, both rated 14th among goalies this postseason. Compare that with the fact that the goaltenders of the other 3 remaining teams are all in the top 7 in GAA, and the top 9 in sv%, and it is clear that the Sharks will have a problem if the goaltending does not improve. Niemi is a Stanley Cup winning goaltender, however, and has experience that none of the other goaltenders can boast. If he seizes the moment of the Conference Finals and plays the way he did at the close of last year’s postseason, he could be the main reason the Sharks advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.
My prediction: In a matchup of two teams who have scuffled in the postseason in recent years, the Sharks prevail. The Sharks rely on consistent offensive production and get just enough from Antti Niemi to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Sharks win in 7 games.
Good article Bob. You make a lot of good points. I think it’s amazing how well Roloson has played so far, I thought going into the playoffs the Lightning’s D and goaltending would simply fall apart but he’s proved the contrary. I agree that Boston is better overall defensively and if they can get leads will be able to sit on them but it is an interesting matchup. I think Vancouver is deeper than San Jose as good as I think the Sharks are. San Jose has shown in the past they choke in big games, but so has Luongo. I don’t see Niemi as a stellar goalie by far and personally think his Stanley Cup ring is more to the depth of the Blackhawks last year than his play (in reality he only had to out-duel a 28 year old AHLer). Still, the Sharks stand a good chance but I think Kesler will lead Vancouver to the finals.