Tomorrow, the 2011 NHL Playoffs will begin, and 16 teams will compete to hoist the Stanley Cup in June. Many storylines dominated the headlines entering the playoffs, such as the complete control of the West by the Vancouver Canucks, the end-of-season hot streak by Washington to claim the top spot in the East, and the clinching of playoff spots in the final day of the regular season by the Blackhawks and the Rangers. All the playoff matchups are now set, and here are some keys for each series:
EAST
1) Washington Capitals vs. 8] New York Rangers
Will the Washington goaltending be effective in the postseason? In recent years, the play of Washington goaltenders has been shaky during the postseason. This year’s team seems no different. The Capitals have two goaltenders that trade time on the ice, Michael Neuvirth and Semyon Varmalov. Neuvirth has a 27-12 record this season, with a 2.45 GAA, and Varlamov has a 27-11 record with a 2.23 GAA. Both goaltenders have solid numbers, but neither has had the consistent performance and experience, and neither has done enough to establish himself as the primary goaltender. Head Coach Bruce Boudreau has slated Michael Neuvirth for the start in Game 1 against the New York Rangers, but one must question how long the leash will be with the similar numbers for both goaltenders in the platoon system this season.
For the Rangers, the biggest key is Henrik Lundqvist. Lundqvist is one of the best goaltenders in the league, and will need to stand on his head in multiple games for the Rangers to have a chance in this series. In the 2010 series between the Capitals and Canadiens, a series that Montreal won in 7 games, Washington outshot Montreal 292-184, or a 108 shot differential. Lundqvist will need to be the presence that Jaroslav Halak was last season for Montreal, and will need to compensate for the high differential in shots that will inevitably occur in this series.
My pick: Lundqvist plays very well, but the Capitals avenge their loss last season in the first round. Washington defeats New York in 7 games.
2) Philadelphia Flyers vs. 7) Buffalo Sabres
The biggest questions for the Flyers are the defense and goaltending situations. There is no doubt that the Flyers are very solid on offense, with players like Claude Giroux, Danny Briere, and Mike Richards, among others. However, the defense is battered, with the uncertain status of Chris Pronger, who has been recovering from a surgically repaired right hand. Without his presence on the ice at 100%, the defense is fairly thin, and could be worn down by sustained pressure from Buffalo in the offensive zone. The other question, the goaltending, is concerning for the Flyers. Sergei Bobrovsky and Brian Boucher have shared time this season in net, with Bobrovsky logging most of the starts. Neither goaltender is spectacular, as Bobrovsky has a .915 save percentage, and Boucher is a .916 save percentage. Also, without the defense completely healthy, as it has been for the past 2 months, the goaltenders will face even more significant challenges.
For Buffalo, the question is toughness. Last season, the Sabres were the 3rd seed in the East, but were outclassed by the Boston Bruins in the 1st round. The Bruins were considerably tougher than Buffalo, as Zdeno Chara and Milan Lucic dominated the Sabres in terms of physicality. Buffalo is littered with smaller, up-tempo players such as Tyler Ennis, Jason Pominville, and Brad Boyes. While these players are all very explosive, they also lack the physicality of Jeff Carter and Scott Hartnell for Philadelphia. Even Buffalo’s 6’8″, 227 LB defender Tyler Myers is more of an effective stickhandler than he is a bruising type defender. Buffalo will need to match the physicality of Philadelphia, a team’s whose physicality is a large part of their gameplan.
My prediction: Philadelphia’s questions on defense and goaltender are never completely answered, and the team just runs into a hot Buffalo team. Buffalo defeats Philadelphia in 6 games.
3) Boston vs. 6) Montreal
There are not a ton of questions for Boston entering the playoffs. The Bruins are 3rd in scoring in the East, and are 1st in the East in Goals Allowed. A small question for Boston is the mindset of the team entering the playoffs after losing 4 straight in the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals after having a 3-0 series lead on the Flyers. However, I think the Bruins will be inspired by last year’s disappointment, and will make a long run behind Tim Thomas, who is arguably the best goaltender in the league this season.
For Montreal, the question will again be the scoring. In last year’s first round, the Canadiens had only 184 shots on goal in 7 games. This season, Montreal is last in the East in scoring among the 8 playoff teams, and 24th in the league. Can Brian Gionta and Michael Cammalleri lead this shaky offense to victory against arguably the best goaltender in the league?
My pick: Boston rolls through the first round. Boston defeats Montreal in 5 games.
4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 5) Tampa Bay Lightning
Pittsburgh’s biggest question is how the team will be able to play without both Crosby and Malkin. Sidney Crosby suffered a concussion in early January, first thought to be mild, but later was found to be much more serious. Crosby has not returned to the ice since the injury, and his presence is in jeopardy for the entire 2011 playoffs. In fact, there is much speculation about the long-term future of Crosby as an NHL superstar. Evgeni Malkin suffered an ACL and MCL tear in early February, and he will not play in the series either. These two players are two of the main faces of the NHL, and their presence will be missed. However, the team has played without both for 2 months, and has continued to win throughout the turmoil. In the final 10 games of the season, the Penguins are 8-2-0, and are one of the hottest teams in the league.
The Tampa Bay Lightning’s biggest concern is the defense and goaltending. The Lightning has allowed more goals (240) than any other Eastern Conference playoff team, and trail only Detroit (241) among all playoff teams. There is no doubt that the team can score with anyone in the league, with Steven Stamkos (45 goals) and team leader in points Martin St. Louis (99 points). However, with the stellar goaltending of Marc-Andre Fleury this season, the scoring power of Tampa Bay might not be enough. The team still needs to play solid defense, and goaltender Dwayne Roloson has been very average this season. He has a 2.59 GAA and .914 save percentage this season, and has been a liability when the team has struggled.
My prediction: The Penguins win a close, hard fought series. The Penguins offense beats up on Roloson, and Fleury does just enough to stop the high-powered Tampa Bay offense. Pittsburgh defeats Tampa Bay in 7 games.
–
Stay tuned in the next day for the Western Conference Preview.
[…] the NHL Eastern Conference Playoffs already previewed by Bob Long (http://boblongsports.com/2011/04/12/nhl-eastern-conference-playoff-preview/), I have broken down the match-ups in the Western Conference. There are many familiar teams in […]
Hey bob, nice article, just wanted to let you know its Semyon Varlamov not Sergei. Also, you could look at Washington possibly using Braden Holtby. Neuvirth and Varlamov have split time for the most party but Holtby played well when both were out and was really talked up by their team. I also wanted to argue a bit about the Flyers d being “fairly thin.” Its hard to replace a player like Chris Pronger, no doubt, but the top 4 right now are Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn, who has had a great season, Andrej Meszaros, also having a fantastic season, and Matt Carle, who I’m not a fan of. The defense is still pretty good and capable of playing solid defensive games, the team as a whole has just struggled for the past month. Buffalo/Philadelphia should be a great series if both teams play to their potential.
You are right, my apologies, must have been thinking of the St. Louis Blues former Winger when I wrote that. Fixed now, thanks again.