Today, two big shifts occurred in college football. The supposed apocalypse of the college football conference landscape appears to be happening. Now the only question is who will be left out of the party, and where teams will land at the end of the roulette. Colorado officially accepted a bid to become a member of the Pac 10 Conference. Nebraska has reportedly accepted an invitation to become a member of the Big Ten Conference, and a statement is expected to be released on Friday.
Therefore, the Big XII Conference, known to be the 2nd best conference in football in recent years, may cease to exist in the very near future. The conference has already lost 2 teams (Nebraska and Colorado) and is now left with 10. I also expect that Missouri, which is very unhappy with the treatment it has received with regard to revenue sharing in the Big XII, will bolt for the Big Ten very soon. That leaves a conference that has already struggled with revenue compared to nearby conferences such as the Big Ten, Pac 10, and SEC, with only 9 teams. So what could the conference do to restore itself? Pick up more teams? Not likely. The Mountain West Conference, with teams such as Utah, TCU, and BYU, would be the hotbed from which to draw potential universities. However, the problem with this solution is that the Mountain West is also trying to expand, and has reportedly offered a bid to Boise State from the WAC. Therefore, the Mountain West is lobbying hard to expand its conference so that the conference isn’t looted for its talent like the Big XII is now.
However, for argument’s sake, let’s say that the Mountain West is raided for its talent, and Boise State does not join. Where will those teams go? Does one really think that Boise (from the WAC), Utah, or BYU will go to the Big XII? Certainly not based upon location compared to the Pac 10, and certainly not based upon revenue as compared to the Pac 10. Therefore, the only team that could join the Big XII from the Mountain West would most likely be TCU.
So the best case scenario for the Big XII is that the conference loses the three teams that are almost certain to leave (Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri), and then picks up TCU from the Mountain West. 10 teams isn’t a terrible number, and I believe the conference would be very happy with this result. However, the one key factor that has yet to be discussed is the influence of the SEC. The SEC has reportedly had interest and contact with Texas and Texas A&M about a possible conference change. The Big Ten has also had significant interest in Texas. Then there is Oklahoma, which is also a potential target for the SEC. If one of these three powerhouses leaves the Big XII (Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas A&M), then most likely all will look to find new homes, and this would spell doom and the end of the Big XII Conference as we know it.
Therefore, to college football fans who do not quite have the whole picture in terms of the conference shifting, here is a cliffnotes version of what is most important. Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri will leave. The Big XII will attempt to acquire teams like TCU from the Mountain West to offset the departure of these three schools, but this is not what is important. The Big XII could continue to thrive under 9 teams or even 8 teams, and the addition of a Mountain West school is not necessary. What is essential for the future is the conference is the decision of these three teams; Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma. These three teams are the mainstays of the conference, and Texas has major rivalries with both Texas A&M and Oklahoma. If one of these three teams leaves the Big XII, at least one of the other two will follow, which will leave the conference depleted and will cause the third and final team to leave. If this happens, this will end the confernece as we know it. Therefore, when analyzing the conference shifts, and the future of the Big XII, worry not about Colorado or Nebraska, or whether the conference can entice TCU, but worry about what will happen to Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma. Those three universities hold the conference in the palms of their hands at this point, and can drop it at any point they wish.
great article bob. sad to see the big XII like this tho.